An established distributor can look at past sales to decide how much to order. The founder of a new brand has only enthusiasm and estimates, which leads to two common mistakes: ordering too much and tying up capital, or ordering too little and running out before the product has proved itself. The answer is not guessing but estimating with a method.
Why is it hard?
Because every number is an assumption: conversion rate, repurchase pace, price response. But no data does not mean no information. Three sources are usable before the first order: pre-orders or waitlists, benchmarks from comparable channels, and a small test with real customers.
Step 1: gather real demand signals
The strongest signal is commitment, even a small one. From strongest to weakest:
- Paid pre-orders: the customer has committed money.
- Provisional agreement with a distributor, salon or shop: useful when it names a rough quantity and date, but not a guarantee until a purchase order is signed.
- Waitlist: useful, but only a share of sign-ups actually buy, so plan for that.
- Social media engagement: the weakest; a like is not a purchase.
Discount the weak signals with a cautious assumption and write it down so you can revisit it after launch.
Step 2: build three scenarios, not one number
Create a conservative, a mid and an optimistic scenario. For each, set the expected customers over three months, units per customer and the repurchase share. The table is an illustrative example of the method, not a market benchmark.
| Scenario | Customers (assumed) | Units per customer | Expected units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 100 | 1 | 100 |
| Mid | 200 | 1.2 | 240 |
| Optimistic | 400 | 1.5 | 600 |
Then add an allowance for samples, marketing gifts and breakage. The result is a range, not a point.
Step 3: convert units into oil and packaging
Turn units into oil weight, bottles, closures and cartons. The method is covered in our guide to calculating argan oil quantity. Remember that the factory's minimum order may exceed your conservative scenario, which calls for a deliberate decision.
Step 4: choose by cost of being wrong
Which error costs you more? If a stock-out would cost you a season or a distributor, lean toward the mid scenario. If capital is tight, start from the conservative one with a fast reorder plan.
- Order enough to cover the conservative scenario, or the nearest multiple of the minimum.
- Agree a reorder window with the factory with a known lead time.
- Decide in advance what threshold will trigger a larger order.
Step 5: stage the order
Ordering in stages, or receiving in several deliveries, reduces tied-up capital. Ask whether the oil can be produced in full while only part is bottled, or whether scheduled deliveries are possible. Not every factory offers this, so get it in writing. See also the annual supply agreement once demand stabilises.
Step 6: review after launch
For the first six to eight weeks, compare actual sales with your scenarios and update only three numbers: weekly sales rate, repurchase share and remaining stock. Your second order will be far more accurate.
FAQ
How do I estimate demand if I have never sold before?
Rely on paid pre-orders and provisional agreements, build three scenarios instead of one number, and review them after the first weeks of sales.
Should I order the factory minimum?
Ask for the real minimum for your product. If it exceeds your conservative scenario, check you can sell the surplus before expiry, or negotiate staged deliveries.
How much safety margin?
There is no fixed rate. It depends on lead time, demand volatility and the cost of a stock-out.
When should I reorder?
When stock only covers the manufacturing and shipping time plus a margin, so know that lead time from the first order.
Start with a considered order
Discuss your numbers with the factory early. Browse our products, then request a quote with your rough scenarios and we will help you choose a first quantity that fits your brand and capital.
