Many brand owners treat the arrival of a first argan oil shipment as the finish line. It is really the start of the true test: will the product sell at the expected pace, and will the quantity last until the next batch lands? Decisions made in the first weeks decide whether you run out of stock or tie up too much capital.
Here is a three-phase plan for the first 90 days that ends in an informed reorder decision instead of a late guess.
Why plan this period?
Early on you lack sales data and tend to make one of two errors: ordering too soon out of enthusiasm, or too late after stock runs out. Because lead time covers production, shipping and clearance, waiting for empty shelves means weeks of absence and lost momentum with your first customers.
Phase 1 (week 1): receiving and records
- Check the shipment against a bulk receiving inspection checklist and photograph any damage before moving cartons.
- Record batch numbers, expiry dates and actual unit counts.
- Keep retained samples from each batch.
- Store away from light and heat, arranged so older batches sell first.
- Start a simple sheet tracking units in and out.
Phase 2 (weeks 2 to 6): a controlled launch
Do not release all the stock at once. Split it across a few channels first, such as your online store and one or two distributors. The goal is not maximum sales but a reliable read on sales speed and customer reaction.
- Set an initial quantity per channel and hold a reserve.
- Ask each channel for a weekly sales and stock report.
- Collect feedback in one place: aroma, feel, packaging, price.
- Log every complaint with its batch number.
If you work with distributors, FEFO stock rotation protects you from expiry as you scale.
Phase 3 (weeks 7 to 13): reading the numbers
| Metric | Calculation | What it tells you |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly sales rate | Units sold ÷ weeks | Actual demand speed |
| Days of cover | Current stock ÷ average daily sales | How long stock will last |
| Complaint and return rate | Cases ÷ units sold | Experience and packaging quality |
| Repeat purchase rate | Customers buying twice ÷ total customers | Loyalty or passing curiosity |
Launch week is often above the normal rate because of promotions, so do not base forecasts on it alone.
Calculating your reorder point
Reorder point = (average daily sales × full lead time in days) + safety stock
Full lead time runs from sending the purchase order until units are ready to sell: production, packing, shipping, clearance and inspection. Ask the factory for the real timeline for your order, not the shortest figure you have heard. Safety stock covers sales swings and delays, and grows when demand is volatile or shipping less predictable.
A purely illustrative example: 10 units a day, 60 days of lead time and 10 days of safety stock give 10 × 70 = 700 units. Your figures will differ, but the logic holds.
The reorder decision: when and how much
- Timing: place the order at the reorder point, not when stock is nearly gone.
- Quantity: cover a defined selling period after arrival, within the minimum order and your cash position.
- Fixes: if complaints relate to a bottle or label, correct them before the next batch.
- Agreement: once demand proves steady, consider an annual supply agreement to lock volume and quality without freezing capital.
Common mistakes
- Treating launch week as the lasting rate.
- Leaving clearance and inspection out of lead time.
- Ignoring small, similar complaints because there are few.
- Ordering big before knowing the repeat rate.
- Leaving channels without reporting, so real stock is invisible.
FAQ
When should I place the second order?
When stock reaches the reorder point calculated from your sales rate and real lead time, which can be before day 90.
What if sales are slower than expected?
Do not double the order. Review price, channels and messaging first, delay ordering if cover allows, and ask the factory about smaller quantities.
How much safety stock is right?
There is no fixed figure. It depends on how volatile your sales are and how reliable shipping is.
Do I need a second supplier from day one?
Not necessarily, but as demand grows a backup source may become worthwhile once your specifications are stable.
In short
The first 90 days turn guesswork into numbers: documented receiving, a controlled launch, then a sales rate and reorder point. If you are planning a first or second order with a manufacturer that is open about real lead times, request a quote from Assil Ouargane.
